From The Mail Buoy: “The Truth Behind Budgeting– It’s Not The Budget”


A reader writes:
“My spouse and I need a budget. What should we do?
What type of budgeting do you recommend?
I know it’s not a ‘one size fits all’ world, but how much is too much saving?
It feels a little unsustainable at times but my wife and I make it work. We do love to get fancy and enjoy nice things but a lot of times the budget doesn’t allow it.”

Image of a man with his head down on his laptop keyboard, crushed by a concrete block representing a budget. | The-Military-Guide.com

“Your first budget.”

Here’s the dirty little secret among personal finance experts: just about everybody hates budgets. (Sorry, J. Money…)

No matter how many different ways you build a budget, nobody likes to live with them. If you’re responsible for maintaining one, then you know how it feels when everyone else complains about it.

This is not a listicle about the top ten budget apps or their affiliate links. We’re digging deeper to find better ways to live with any type of budget. Once you’re clear on how you’re going to make a budget work for you (not the other way around) then you’ll have an easier time picking one.

The root cause of the problem is our attitudes, not our budgets.

The scarcity mindset

When humans build budgets, we feel constrained by limited resources“This is how much I earn, this is how much I should save, and this is how much I can spend.”  We immediately focus on shelter, food, transportation, and investments. We try to boost our savings rate as high as possible.

Image of a budding plant growing out of a dry cracked lakebed with a pair of hands protecting it from the environment. | MilitaryFinancialIndependence.com

Is it really that scarce?

What about having fun? “Nah, we can’t afford that.”

The scarcity mindset turns life into a zero-sum game, where everything you “win” means that you lose something else. That type of budgeting only highlights where you’ve sacrificed today’s quality of life for non-discretionary expenses and your future quality of life.

The budget can make you cross the line from frugality to deprivationMaybe deprivation is a worthy pursuit of a short-term goal (like finding a better job or paying off credit card debt) but it’s unsustainable.

Military families are keenly aware of the line between frugality and deprivation. (Mostly because we have too much experience with deprivation.) Frugality makes you feel challenged & fulfilled. You’re winning, and you might do frugal for a life of philanthropy and legacy.

Yet are our resources really that constrained?

People may not even realize we have a scarcity mindset, especially if you were raised in a dysfunctional family or dealt with childhood poverty. In those situations, with little control over your health and safety, you really may have been in a zero-sum game. (See the note about poverty and “Broke” at the end of this post.) Maybe that childhood taught you to spend all of your money before it’s confiscated, and now you feel trapped by your new budget.

Or maybe you’re still learning to manage your money, and your scarcity mindset was formed by the culture and people in your neighborhood. If you’ve struggled with your finances and recently discovered financial independence, then your new budget might inadvertently cause problems with your old lifestyle– and people will complain that you’re no fun anymore.

Now that we’re adults, we can manage our money to improve our quality of life. We’ll also try to replace old money dialogues with a new mindset.

The abundance mindset

Paula Pant says it best with her theme: “You can afford anything, but not everything.”

Reframe your questions:

Image of a word cloud around the phrase "Abundance mentality." | MilitaryFinancialIndependence.com

This takes a while to develop.

“How could I find a way to afford that?”
“Am I willing to work for it?”
“How would I impact my future financial independence if I wanted to have more fun now?”

It’s hard to evolve to an abundance mindset. The first step is to gain enough financial security to know that you’re going to reach your goals, even despite the inevitable surprises & setbacks. It took me several years to appreciate that, and it’s even more difficult when you’re trapped in the fog of work.

Your new mindset starts with shelter, food, and transportation. They’re the biggest expenses in a budget, and anything you don’t have to spend on them can be put toward other goals– whether that’s a better quality of life, or investing for retirement, or simply a night out.

Maybe the obstacles to your fun budget are an excessively large home, or buying convenience food and takeout, or indulging in a fancy car.

Are you held back by those three choices while you’re trying to save for more fun and an occasional splurge on fancy? Are you inadvertently trying to recreate your parents’ living standards now, even if it took them decades to achieve? Are you being suckered into buying the consumer spending shown in social media and advertising?

I won’t belabor the solutions: house-hacking, roommates, living in a cheaper/smaller place, cooking more meals from ingredients, living closer to work, and using public transportation or a bicycle. The entire Internet is filled with those blog posts.

My point is that you might feel constrained to live in an expensive area (because of your job or career), and to spend more money on takeout (because of your working hours), and to endure a horrible commute because of… the job.

All of those expensive problems have solutions, and you can build a better budget for them. Yet maybe the core problem is where you work.

Instead of accepting high costs of housing, food, and transportation because of the job and a scarcity mindset, maybe it’s time to change the job and build your abundance mindset.

 

It’s not the budget, it’s your job.

Image of a bed covered with dollar bills. | The-Military-Guide.com

“Just earn more!”… right?

I’m not trying to say “Just earn more!” and suggesting a side hustle. That never worked very well for me, either.

Instead, I’m suggesting a long-term plan. Your “side hustle” could be developing more job skills and then negotiating a raise– or finding a higher-paying employer. If those aren’t in your town right now then 2020 has reminded all of us about remote work: maybe you could uncouple “your job” from “your housing location, your food habits, and your commute.” Maybe your office job can be done in a home office as well as a corporate office.

Maybe it’s as straightforward as posting your resume on a remote-work site to pick up projects of a few hours a week. There’s a little money, sure, but you’re also gaining entrepreneurial experience and developing more workforce skills.

Building your tremendous human capital can lead you to an abundance mindset, but you have to find the opportunities. It’s hard to pull your head out of that fog of work for the thinking and the planning, but this problem is worth solving. You’re changing your life to match your goals.

Let’s move on to a different question: is your budget really the problem, or are those problems a symptom of a more severe issue?

It’s not the budget, it’s a communications problem.

It’s one of the most frequent questions in personal finance: “How do I get the people around me to agree with my life goals and my budget priorities?”

Maybe you don’t have a budget problem. Maybe you have communications troubles or even a relationship challenge.

When this happens with friends, then the answer’s relatively straightforward: maybe you don’t have the right friends yet. If they’re willing to change their mindset too, then those friendships are worth keeping. But if they insist on basing their friendship around spending money instead of enjoying hanging out with you, then you need new friends.

With parents and in-laws… well, I never figured out that challenge. You’ll have to try to build your best life even without their support, and hopefully, someday they’ll come around. Even if they don’t agree with your goals or your career path, they should want you to feel happy about your life and they should help you celebrate your milestones.

If it’s your girlfriend or boyfriend then maybe you’re ready to talk about building your lives together and whether your different goals can be reconciled. Compromises shouldn’t involve sacrifices or abandoning your goals to support theirs. Instead, your team plan should accommodate both of your goals and work out the timeline for reaching them.

Image of two communications wires with frayed ends that have shredded apart. | MilitaryFinancialIndependence.com

Yeah, sure, easy to fix.

When a budget problem happens in a marriage, the answer’s a little more complicated: you’ve already committed to your lives together, and now you have to work through the obstacles to make it better. You might have more of a communications problem than a budget problem. Are you both still focused on the same goal, or is one of you more motivated than the other? Maybe it’s better to step back and re-negotiate your shared priorities.

Military families face these issues every day because at least one of the couple is moving so frequently in pursuit of their service’s mission. Dual-military spouses face career-limiting compromises just to be stationed together. Other military families have to let the location dictate one career while the spouse either waits their turn (for years) or finds location-independent work.

That still leaves the conflicts of long working hours and the time spent away from home.

These problems are not unique to military families, either. Veterans and civilians struggle with the same issues– move for the job, or find a new career? Is it worth gutting it out in the job, or are your priorities changing? Is it time for a new job?

Keep talking. Better communications can cure a budget problem. Here are two tactics to consider when you’re discussing the budget.

The Budget Police

The first tactic is: avoid turning into the Budget Police.

Image of a piggy bank with a police officer's hat representing "The Budget Police." | MilitaryFinancialIndependence.com

“The Budget Police.” Too niche?

It’s very common in the financial independence movement. One of a couple discovers FI and then persuades the other, or one is a submariner far more enthusiastic about deferred gratification. That money-minded person immediately researches their new resources and starts building a budget. They took the initiative, and the other person is being asked to join the team.

It doesn’t matter whether the new budget is zero-based, or a flexible 50/30/20 plan, or whether it builds sinking funds for every expense. It could be hand-written in a spiral notebook or a multi-tab spreadsheet covering the next three decades.

Unfortunately, the budget enthusiasm can inadvertently set up an adversarial relationship where one person runs the budget and the other person plays along… until they suddenly realize that they’re giving up more than they’d like.

One of you has turned into the Budget Police and the other one is begging for money.

Nobody’s happy.

“Begging for money” is when you feel that you need more money for your standard of living, let alone your goals. You’d like to join your co-workers for a monthly lunch or a happy hour, and suddenly that conflicts with your family budget. You want those sports tickets or that TV subscription, but nobody else in your family supports it. You’re maintaining a wardrobe but you’re getting pressure to find it in thrift stores or (even worse) sew your own. The kids make their case for a higher allowance– do you traumatize the next generation by telling them it’s not in the budget? (“Good luck with that.”) The entire family squabbles over who left the lights on, how long a shower should take, or why the thermostat is at the wrong number.

The Budget Police are equally unhappy. The budget is supposed to be a guide, and a roadmap to a goal, but now your partner wants to go their own way. The whole family agreed on it (or at least let you make the key decisions) and suddenly you’re getting pushback. You enjoyed creating the budget (and imagining the possibilities in your new goals) but you never wanted to be in charge of handing out the nickels. Everyone’s shooting the messenger!

The solution? If you find yourself in either role, then switch roles for a while.

Stay in that other role for as long as necessary. Develop an understanding and a sense of greater empathy for what that other person was doing. Along the way, you might discover that you want to run the budget a different way, or use a different method. You might even split up the assignments– one of you tracks expenses and pays the bills while the other does the monthly summaries and handles the income-tax returns.

Everything is negotiable as long as you understand the challenges and issues of the other person’s tasks. If you find yourselves both “begging for money” then you’ll definitely want to implement the second tactic.

Allowances for adulting

The second tactic: give yourselves an allowance.

Bear with me. This technique is deceptively simple yet incredibly empowering.

It’s the same kind of allowance that you may have received when you were growing up– only this time there’s no critiquing or judging. Allowances should be big enough for you to “get fancy and enjoy nice things” without adversely impacting your other financial goals.

Each of you gets the same monthly allowance. If the two of you can’t agree on that then you have bigger issues with your communications skills or even your relationship.

Image of the book cover for "Raising Your Money-Savvy Family For Next Generation Financial Independence" by Carol Pittner and Doug Nordman | childFIRE.com

Click the image to order.

Whether the allowance is $50/month per person or $500/month per person, you both agree to live with the same rules:
1. It’s yours to spend as you wish. The budget categories are “My allowance” and “Your allowance”, and you don’t have to discuss how it was spent. How you handle your allowance is your business, and it’s a judgment-free zone.
2. You can spend it all on the first day or spread it out over the month, but you don’t have to discuss that either. When it’s gone then you have to wait for next month’s allowance. No advances or borrowing allowed.
3. You can spend it all every month or you can save it for a bigger (personal) goal. Again, it’s your allowance. No accounting is required and you can even stash yours in a separate account.

[Note: those rules are for an adult allowance, not for kids. You’ll still want to talk your kids through their emotions, their plans, and their feelings when they make mistakes. Maybe you shouldn’t judge a kid for their spending either, but you’d certainly want to help them discuss it and learn to make better choices. My daughter and I wrote a book about allowances for your money-savvy family.]

If you two adults disagree on whether to spend for a thing or an experience, then whoever wants it might have to buy it out of their allowance.

Image of a longboard breaking the windshield of a car on a highway. | The-Military-Guide.com

“Oh, that’s definitely comin’ outta your allowance.”

One rule carries over from your childhood: if you break something, that’s comin’ outta your allowance. I’ve survived many chaotic home-improvement projects, and I can affirm that this part of the system works very well. Hopefully this time it’s part of an adult conversation, like “Well, I wouldn’t do that, and if you break it then it’s coming out of your allowance.

The adult allowance also… allows… both of you to express your money preferences. If one of you is a spender then you’ll probably use your allowance for yet another longboard the things which bring you joy– even if you have to carefully ration those opportunities every month to make the most of them.

If one of you is a saver then you’ll gravitate toward personal goals that require a bigger pile of cash, like a milestone birthday or a family weekend trip.

It’s your allowance and your choices. Don’t judge, and you won’t be judged.

The budget’s bottom line

When you add up last month’s expenses and compare them to your budget, you’re not just reviewing your net worth.

You’re also checking your net happiness, and your progress toward your financial independence lifestyle. (“FI gives you choices.”) Your progress might slow down or even wander aimlessly once in a while to enjoy an experience, and that’s the part that helps you stay happy even as you pursue your life goals.

You’re still tracking your spending and cutting the waste. You still get to decide what you value and what’s wasted. If something brings value then you’re willing to work for it, and if it’s wasted then you can cut it back (or cut it out) and still feel as if you’re winning.

Use your budget reviews to adjust your categories & limits whenever it makes sense. Maybe you’ll deliberately choose to spend more on a holiday or anniversary month, or maybe you spend less during summers or winters.

In the long term, as your spending stabilizes and your net worth is on track, then you could decide to change your budget strategy. You could choose to stop tracking every penny and shift to something like the big-picture 50/30/20 budget. Maybe you’ll start in full accountant nerd mode (like me) and track everything to the penny with new categories and monthly reviews… then suddenly 30 years later decide that you no longer need a detailed analysis.

Once you reach FI you might have your spending dialed in so well that you no longer need to track it very closely. If your net worth (or your passive income) continues to grow then you might even ignore expenses under $20/month. (Or under $100/month.) As long as your net worth is more than you need for your withdrawal rate, then you can focus more of your attention on generational wealth and philanthropy.

Maybe that’s your personal shift from scarcity to abundance.  Or so I’ve heard…

Postscript:

If you really did grow up in poverty, or if you feel trapped in it, or if you think poor people are victims of their own problems… here’s a way to achieve a deeper understanding of the issues.

My high-school classmate Dana Gold grew up in poverty. (I never noticed, or perhaps she hid it well.) She’s spent the last 40 years working in shelters and community services, and she has a very broad and personal perspective on the issues. (The solutions? Welp, we’re still working on that part.) Dana has tried for years to help more people understand how poverty affects your decision-making skills, and she’s created “Broke: The Game.” It’s a free mobile app and a free PDF of her book about the subject. (You can also buy the board game and the eBook.) Playing the game and reading the book will show you how poverty forces hard choices when you don’t have the mental bandwidth (let alone enough food) to make the best choices.

You might not be able to stop poverty. (Dana’s worked on that for most of her life.) However, you’ll understand the issues and perhaps empathize with people who are still trapped in the poverty cycle.

For another stark example of behavioral economics, the Center for Financial Services Innovation has created the FinX exercise. You can watch the video of how life happens when you’re unbanked, or read how FinX has affected financial professionals, or learn more from the FinX site.

It turns out that people dealing with poverty are solving their money-management problems in logical ways that you’ll never see when you’re affluent. When you’re trapped in poverty then even the traditional choices are expensive. Maybe we Americans need to change that tradition, and CFSI can help you spread the word.

[earnist ref=”book-raising-your-money-savvy-family-for-next-generation-financial-independence” id=”82363″]

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Yes, the mail buoy is a Navy thing. Don’t get fooled!

Posted in Financial Independence, Military Life & Family, Money Management & Personal Finance | 2 Comments

How I Planned 8 Months of Travel


This post is brought to you by Mark Delaney at The Veteran Professional. 
If you’re interested in contributing at The-Military-Guide.com, please see our posting guidelines.

My commander looked at my packet of paperwork to leave the military and saw that I was planning on signing out on terminal leave in December. When she asked me what my plans were for after the army, I told her I would be starting my MBA the following August.

“What, then,” she asked, “are you doing until then?”

“I’m going to travel the world.”

Why travel for so long?

Why not??

I saw this as the perfect time in my life to head out and see as much of the world as I could see. The next step in my post-military life would be to start my MBA at the University of Virginia, followed by working to start my business. I knew that this might be one of my last opportunities to take a big trip like this.

Travel has provided me a lot of perspective. It’s shown me how other people live and how their culture affects everyday aspects of their life. And traveling practices my patience and ability to adapt. When things go wrong in travel- it turns into an adventure.

And, sometimes, you just need some adventure in your life.

Where did the money come from?

The money I was planning to use for this adventure all came from saving extensively during multiple deployments and numerous TDY trips. Both of these events presented unique opportunities to save.

I wasn’t able to make it work for my first deployment, but on my next two, I was able to significantly cut my housing costs. For the second deployment, I found someone to live in the house I bought and charged him rent. This effectively cut my mortgage payment in half. On the third, I had already rented out that house and moved everything into storage, so my housing payment was just the cost of the storage unit.

Each deployment and TDY trip also presented an opportunity to save more. Basic expenses like food, gas, and utilities were all reduced during these times so I would take that difference in spending and save it. Additionally, the per diem, combat pay, and saved taxes all went into savings.

Take advantage of military-specific offers

The first part of my journey was two weeks of skiing in Park City, Utah. Sounds extravagant, right?

Image of the Park City Utah skiing resort on a sunny winter day with a snowy mountain and bright sky in the distance. | The-Military-Guide.com

“Park City, here we come…”

The major expense in skiing is the lift ticket. You can expect to pay a minimum of close to $100/day, and closer to $200/day at a premium resort like Park City. But while on active duty, I bought the Epic Pass, which gave me season access to some of the best mountains in America.

The price for active duty, active duty dependents, and retired military? $169. That’s less than a single day at Park City. And for veterans, the price is still unbelievable at $559.

For housing, I stayed in a hostel. Instead of spending what would likely have been $200/night for a hotel, a hostel cost me about $40/night. This also let me buy groceries and cook my own meals instead of eating out the whole time.

For the last few days of the trip, when some family arrived, I stayed in a Marriott Residence Inn. That was paid for via points earned through TDY travel where I always stayed at a Marriott. And because rooms at the Residence Inn have kitchens, I again made my own meals.

After skiing, I kept my winter activities alive by going on a dogsledding trip with Outward Bound. This nonprofit offers free trips every year for veterans. They even paid for my flight there and to my next destination. And the best part? I adopted one of the dogs that was set to retire.

Image of a dogsled viewed from the rider's perspective with dogs pulling the sled through a snowy forest | The-Military-Guide.com

View from the dog sled

Healthcare

Healthcare can absolutely be a concern for anyone after the military. Especially if you aren’t retiring or going into the reserves, the worry over what you will do for healthcare can be quite real.

During my brief from the VA during a transition class, I learned that since I deployed to a combat zone, I would be eligible for free healthcare (although not dental or vision) for five years after my service. I applied for the VA benefit and received it. I even went to the VA before my trip and they gave me various medicines that I might need at some time during my travels.

Additionally, I purchased a travel insurance policy through World Nomads. Travel insurance is absolutely worth it so this was a no-brainer for me.

Air Travel

The “travel” part of traveling is usually one of the most expensive. Rides on airplanes are not cheap. But there are ways you can make it cheaper.

I went into my adventure with only some broad intentions, but no real itinerary. This gave me a lot of leeway in booking flights, as I could maximize cheaper options over trying to fit them into my schedule. Typically, I would search through Skyscanner.

One of the best perks you can get while in the military is the American Express Platinum Card®. They waive the yearly fee for active duty, and the travel perks are amazing:

  • $200 airline fee credit
  • 5x points on travel when booking through American Express
  • Fee credit for Global Entry or TSA PRE✓®
  • $200/year credit for Uber

And while flying you get access to the American Express Centurion® Lounges and a host of other lounges via the Priority Pass, membership which is free with the card. There’s nothing like being able to kick back and relax at an airport lounge while traveling. And it surely helps with layovers.

Even though I am no longer on active duty and the $550/year annual fee is no longer waived, I still have this card. The price is made up for through all the perks.

Budget hotel options

I traveled solo and so was looking for ways to meet people. For me, that meant staying at hostels.

Lots of people have reservations about hostels, not helped by the fact that there are a few horror movies based on living in hostels. But I have found them to be quite enjoyable and a great way to meet fellow travelers. Hostels tend to be most popular with younger travelers (I was often considered “old” at the ripe age of 31). But many have strict quiet hours, private rooms, and can be conducive to anyone looking for a cheaper option.

To find cheap options, start with Hostelworld and AirBnB.

Embrace the unknown, but have a backup!

I went into the trip knowing that if somehow everything failed, I could go back home and move in with my family. Not ideal- but I knew that I could do that. I gave myself the permission to take risks, but took the precautions to mitigate those risks and let myself enjoy the experience.

I encourage anyone to think about taking some extended time off after the military. Take the time to enjoy family and friends, explore, and reflect on your time in service.

Unfortunately, my plan was cut about halfway through because of COVID-19. It didn’t seem wise to keep traveling amidst a global pandemic!

As I left the military and saw some opportunities for improving the transition process, so I started The Veteran Professional. The site shares information with veterans interested in graduate schools, entrepreneurship, and professional careers. Thanks for stopping by!

[earnist ref=”the-military-guide-to-financial-independence” id=”70177″]

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Posted in Travel | 4 Comments

“I’m 59.5 Years Old And Done Writing About *My* Money”


We’re aging out.

As many of you know from your research, 59.5 is the minimum age for starting optional withdrawals from an IRA. Nearly everyone worries about how they’ll tap their IRA for living expenses when they reach financial independence before 59.5.  (Although there are many penalty-free exceptions to this tax law.) I hit that dubious age milestone in April 2020, yet after decades of planning for our IRA withdrawals– we won’t need to. Today my spouse and I are pretty sure that we’ll never need to touch our Roth IRAs for the rest of our lives.

In late 1999 we reached financial independence on our high savings rate. We did it through 17 years of saving 40% of our gross income and investing it in equity mutual funds. We didn’t even realize we’d reached FI until 2001, when I finally understood the 4% Safe Withdrawal Rate.

I retired from active duty in 2002 at age 41. In addition to my military pension, we started withdrawing from our investments at the 4% SWR. We also began converting our Thrift Savings Plan accounts and traditional IRAs to Roth IRAs. We finished that process in 2018.

Back at the dawn of a new millennium (and the pit of the Internet Recession), reaching FI was unusual. Retiring in your 40s was controversial and bordered on foolhardy. People wanted to learn more. How did we get that much money? Did we have any clue how long it would last? What if we ran out? What about <insert myths and legends of early retirement here>… and “You’ll be so bored…” and “What will you DO all day?!?

Image of bed covered in fake dollar bills from display room at Zero Box Lodge in Porto, Portugal | The-Military-Guide.com

(Not our actual bedroom.)

The 4% SWR is working just fine.  In 2020, at age 59.5, we have more money than we need and we’re withdrawing less than 3.5%. It’s sustainable for life.

We used to discuss our plans to avoid running out of money before we died. Now we’re planning to avoid estate taxes. Today we’re nowhere near anybody’s estate-tax limits, but we can project the compound math for another 40 (60?) years of our FI lifestyle. We’re also spending more time on philanthropy and next-generation financial independence.

We’re not shopping for yachts or private jets, but we’re certainly not worried about the next bear market or recession.

The FI conversations are changing.

I’ve belatedly realized that people have stopped asking me how we got to FI. Everyone knows how to do that now. “Heck, Nords did it with clay tablets and a wooden stylus– how hard could it be?

Today, the classic financial independence wisdom is so boring widely accepted that personal-finance websites break down FI stages into a half-dozen different levelsPeople are finally talking about ditching the 1990s FIRE acronym to focus on FI and career changes, not on retirement. If you enjoy your avocation then why would you ever retire?!?

Instead, people want to know about our 18 years of experience at not working for money. And raising your money-savvy family. And philanthropy. And taking care of aging parents. And estate planning. And how recessions feel when you’re FI. And slow travel. And surfing. And grandparenting. And oh by the way, are we bored yet?

Image of the Ol' Surfer Dude from Doonesbury's comic strip as an example of an older person growing a ponytail. | The-Military-Guide

Doonesbury’s Ol’ Surfer Dude.

I’m no longer asked about asset allocation. Instead I’m getting questions about the military’s Survivor Benefit Plan and life-insurance options, annuities, Medicare, Tricare For Life, and when to take Social Security.

Nobody even asks about growing a ponytail.

My spouse and I have even stopped talking about safe withdrawal rates. We’ve changed our lives quite a bit during the last couple decades and we’ve made important transitions. Along the way we’ve become much more aware of behavioral financial psychology, our evolving attitudes from scarcity to abundance, and… (*sigh*) our aging bodies.

I’m struggling to use analogies and cultural references that can be recognized by Millennials and Gen Z. But my whole point of this post is that even my second-millennium analogies are losing relevance– and you guys know how to use search engines.

I might be done writing about my personal finances. I’ll keep writing about general personal finance and I’ll certainly answer your questions– I’ll just stop writing about my specific personal financial independence.

Image of Doug Nordman's granddaughter Arya on the floor with a stuffed toy lion. | The-Military-Guide.com

Arya at 15 weeks– almost crawling!

Let’s clean up some random thoughts in a final blog post about Ohana Nords money.

Then you can tell me what else you’d like to see.

Don’t worry, we’ll still share plenty of baby granddaughter photos!

 

Understanding the journey when you only see the results

My spouse and I spent two decades achieving our overnight financial success. It must seem inevitable that we’re doing well today: I have a pension, she’ll get her pension, we have a rental property, and cheap healthcare!

It’s tempting to think “It’s so easy that anyone can do it!!” And many do, but not everyone.

Image of Jim Carrey in the movie "Dumb and Dumber" with the meme caption "So You're Telling Me There's A Chance" | The-Military-Guide.com

The 4% SWR in 2002.

However today you’re seeing the highlights reel of the director’s cut. In 2002 it was a very different documentary… as many people implied, perhaps it was “Dumb And Dumber.”

After my military retirement, my spouse and I thought we’d never earn another dollar during our entire lives. (My spouse’s parents are still alarmed by that thought.) My reasonable life expectancy was 40 more years, and the 4% SWR studies have struggled to extend their analysis past 30 years.

Back then our assets consisted of:

  • our equity mutual funds with two years’ expenses in cash,
  • our home (a live-in rehab project, mortgaged at 6%),
  • a rental property (leased to my spouse’s parents, mortgaged at 7%, with zero cash flow), and
  • my military pension.

We had a few financial issues:

  • The Internet Recession (and the 9/11 attacks) were still wreaking havoc on the stock market.
  • Our home needed a lot of work to become an actual house.
  • My spouse had left active duty for the Reserves.
  • I didn’t file a VA disability claim because I didn’t feel disabled. (Rookie mistake!)
  • Our rental property needed more work and was worth less than we’d paid for it in 1989.
  • Our rental might be a long-term care facility for my spouse’s parents.

Our math said it would all work. (Barely.) We projected that our expenses would actually drop after I retired because we’d stop outsourcing and start doing more sweat-equity labor.

Our biggest asset was our time. We finally had the time to become better parents, to enjoy our marriage, and to manage those troubled financial assets. We knew that we also had plenty of time to figure out whether this 4% SWR stuff was really sustainable. We had time to find other jobs, to move to a lower-cost area, and several other tactics.

 

The relentless math of financial independence

We still didn’t realize how our assets would appreciate with the 4% SWR, but we sure appreciated having more time in our lives.

I remember taking a lot of recovery naps in 2002. I had more time for surfing for exercise to get my weight and blood pressure under control. We ate healthier (and cooked more). The stock market finally bottomed out in October 2002, although nobody believed that until late 2004.

Image of a spreadsheet bar chart of Nordman family net worth from 1991-March 2020 with 1999 indexed to 100 | The-Military-Guide.com

2007 looked good!

We were still parenting a tweenager. We were still working on both houses. We wondered how we’d free up the money to buy all the materials (and pay the contractors) to fix everything. We started refinancing our mortgages, which is challenging when lenders only see pension income and capital gains.

By 2007, life was even better. I remember looking at our finances one night and shaking my head in disbelief about having over 200% of the money we needed for the 4% SWR.

That financial issues list was looking better:

  • We’d reduced our expense ratios from mutual funds (1.38%) to ETFs (0.25%).
  • Our home looked more like a house, but still needed more work.
  • My spouse had qualified for a Reserve pension starting in 2022.
  • Real estate values were rising, and our 30-year mortgages were now at 5.375% and 5.50%.
  • My parents-in-law had returned to the Mainland, and we raised our market rent by 87%.

Then 2008 happened.

The Great Recession hammered us right in the middle of our sequence of returns risk.
Our net worth dropped by 58% from its ridiculously high peak to its ludicrously low pit. Amazingly we still had 150% of the money we’d need for the 4% SWR, but at the low point in 2009 we were sure the recession would last for a decade. I stopped looking at our financial statements.

If there was anything good about that recession, it was our opportunity to have many thoughtful discussions of our lifestyle expenses and our asset allocation. We’d dropped our mortgage rates to 3.625% and 4.625%. We’d reduced our non-discretionary expenses with solar power and fuel-efficient cars. We were converting our TSP accounts and traditional IRAs to Roth IRAs. We’d made a lot of sweat-equity progress on our home and our rental.

In 2010 our daughter started college. (We’d invested for that that since 1992, and now her college fund was in I bonds & CDs.) The markets showed “green shoots” of recovery, yet we all expected a head fake and a double-dip recession. By 2012, however, we’d begun believing that the economy really was recovering. We had the courage to spend a big chunk of our own recovery on a major home renovation.

As our second decade of FI began, our aggressive portfolio (>90% equities) recovered almost as fast as it had dropped.

I’d published a book, and suddenly (after a decade of practice) I had a writing & blogging career. I donated all of my revenue to military-friendly charities, but I knew that I’d never need another Plan B.

Our cautious optimism was boosted by confidence. Life was not only good but our attitudes finally made the transition from scarcity to abundance. We didn’t need to earn a dollar ever again, and we saw opportunities everywhere.

 

Yet another recession! But…

Our net worth hit a seventh annual new high in 2019. We’ve already survived two recessions and we’re just about bullet-proof from future recessions.

Image of Nordman family's account balances at Fidelity Investments between May 2018 and May 2020 showing bear-market volatility | The-Military-Guide.com

Our bear-market volatility… so far.

We’ve also finished optimizing the “personal” part of our finances. We already had more than we need, and now we’re wasting even less of it.

Amid the chaos of the Coronavirus Recession, we’re checking off our list:

  • We’ve simplified our asset allocation in autopilot with a total stock market index fund.
  • Our portfolio’s overall expense ratio is 0.03%.
  • Oahu real estate values are at an all-time high.
  • Our home is in great shape with low maintenance.
  • Our 40-year-old rental property is finally rehabbed and has a little cash flow.
  • We consolidated our mortgages to one loan at 3.50% (and might go even lower).
  • My spouse’s pension starts in 2022.
  • We finished our Roth IRA conversions.
  • I finally filed my VA disability claim… 14 years late.
  • We’re driving electric vehicles with free power from our home’s solar panels.
  • We’ve finished our estate plan and we’ve figured out more of our philanthropy plan.

Just reducing our investment portfolio’s expense ratios has paid for a couple months of slow travel. Every year. For as long as we can travel.

My spouse is the real winner. When she declined yet another unrefusable offer of her active-duty career in 2001, she abandoned nearly $1M in pay and pension over the next two decades. I remember shaking my head and thinking “It’s only money.” She didn’t need to pay the price for it.

We gained far more than she gave up.

Not only did the Reserves improve our family’s quality of life, but it restored the career challenge and fulfillment which had withered for us in the 1990s. It turns out that we didn’t need the $1M, either, yet she’ll recover that several times over during the rest of her life.

Saving and investing for financial independence gave us choices.  As every military family knows, the assignment policies are rigidly hostile to dual-career couples. (They’re especially discouraging to dual-military couples, but that’s a whole ‘nother blog post.) I’m skeptical that assignment policies will ever get better, but the Web has at least improved the career mobility options for military spouses. We were able to save for financial independence in the last millennium, and today there are even more opportunities to do that during active duty.

My father passed away in 2017 after nearly a decade with Alzheimer’s Disease. My spouse and I are now self-insured for long-term care.  It makes me feel better to know that my family will have less caregiver stress, and if we don’t need the money then we’ll make a charity reasonably happy.

My VA disability rating came in at 30% for bilateral knee damage and tinnitus. I’ve waived a portion of my taxable pension for the tax-free compensation, and it’s saving me about $100/month of income taxes. Someday I might apply for a bonus round due to service-related hearing loss or (much later) a knee replacement. Otherwise, I’d like to avoid “upgrading” my membership in this unfortunately large club. We’ve already paid the price and the compensation doesn’t make up for the sacrifice.

Our life’s documentary started amid attitudes of scarcity and fear, yet now we’re finally living happily ever after.

 

Where do we go from here?

We’re no longer watching our withdrawal rate.

The 4% SWR may have its flaws, but they’re easily avoided– and its successes lead to new challenges.

Image of Doug Nordman's granddaughter Arya at one month holding a copy of The Military Guide book | The-Military-Guide.com

Start ’em young.

We’re boosting our philanthropy. It’s the right thing to do and it also avoids the perils of dynastic wealth. It turns out that when you raise a money-savvy family, the next generation takes care of their own financial independence without waiting for any of your assets. Our daughter and son-in-law already understand FI and career changes, and their lives are full of their choices.

Speaking of next-generation FI: our baby granddaughter is going to get two generations of coaching in it. We’re supporting her 529 account for a year or two, and we could leave her enough inherited wealth to do anything, but I doubt she’ll need it. I’ve seen what the Web has done for the career choices of our daughter and son-in-law, and I can’t wait to see what it does for Arya.

My daughter Carol and I are about to publish our book on raising your money-savvy family. The editing is done(!), the layout looks incredible, and we’ve recorded the raw tracks for the audiobook. We’re publishing in June 2020 and I’ll update this post as it approaches. September 2020.

UPDATE:  Here’s the Amazon link to Raising Your Money-Savvy Family For Next Generation Financial Independence.

Mahalo nui loa hana hou to MK Williams and the team at ChooseFI Media, and we can’t wait to see everyone’s feedback!

I’m writing my third book about financial independence for life. When my spouse and I attended FI Chautauqua 2019, we looked around the room and realized that we were the “most experienced” FI couple. I’ll keep writing books (while I still can), and this time it’s about an abundant lifestyle.

I’ll stop humblebragging blogging about our family’s financial independence. Now that my spouse and I are approaching what used to be a traditional retirement age, from here on our personal financial blogging will be about more traditional retirement issues.

I’ll still occasionally update the bar chart on our net worth post.

I hope we can convince even the 4% SWR skeptics what it means to reach FI with an 80% success rate. There are plenty of ways to counter the hypothetical 20% failure rate, and the benefits far outweigh the fears.

For you older readers– good news! I’ll share more golden knowledge nuggets about:

  • Medicare premiums (and IRMAA),
  • Tricare For Life (and other Medicare supplemental insurance),
  • Social Security (and its taxation), and
  • insurance programs (or self-insuring).

No worries– we won’t review chair lifts or other… “elder mobility independence products.”

We’ll also write about:

A better lifetime philanthropy plan. We don’t have to worry about signing The Giving Pledge but we could certainly give 1% of our net worth to charities every year. Right now the biggest bang for an American buck seems to happen with food banks, homeless shelters, and… AccesSurf.

Exit strategies for investment real estate. (Other than “probate.”) It’s possible that our next generation could move into our rental property during a Hawaii tour. It’s been a crappy financial investment (and a huge opportunity cost) with a great family benefit, and I don’t feel the need to optimize it any further.

The dreaded Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount of Medicare.  My spouse and I can’t avoid IRMAA, but maybe our higher premiums will help stabilize the program for the rest of us.

Social Security at age 70 in 2030. I know everyone’s concerned about the potential 2034 reduction in benefits, but that will be fixed. Between SS and my pension we might not even need our investment portfolio.

Speaking of investments, we might start doing that again with my spouse’s pension. This time we could buy shares with her pension income and donate an equivalent amount of appreciated shares for the income-tax deduction. Better yet, if we ever needed to cash in our gains from our newer investments then we’d pay much lower taxes. If we never needed to cash in our gains then we’ll make more charities very happy.

 

Your call to action

I think I’m done writing about our Ohana Nords finances. If you have any questions left over, please ask them in the comments or use the “Contact me” box!

What else do you want to read about (or listen to)?

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Related articles:
BiggerPockets Money video podcast on FI during a global pandemic (episode #119)
The 1980s-2000s: How I Wish I’d Invested Back Then
Good News! How Our Nords Family Financial Independence Life Will Change In 2019
Our Retirement – The Spending Smile Of Financial Independence
Fear And Despair In The Time Of Bear Markets
Yet Another Decade In Review Post
Family Estate Planning For Your Disability
“I Inherited Money And Now I Can’t Blog About Financial Independence Anymore”
CFP Michael Kitces’ site:  The Extraordinary Upside Potential Of Sequence Of Return Risk In Retirement
Michael Kitces explains the upside of the 4% SWR on this BiggerPockets Money video.
Don’t Gut It Out To 20: Leave Active Duty For The Reserves Or National Guard
“Hey, Nords: How’s Your Net Worth?!?”
Why You File Your Veterans Disability Claim (Not Just How)
Early Withdrawals From Your TSP and IRA After The Military
Our next book:  Raising Your Money-Savvy Family For Next Generation Financial Independence

Posted in Financial Independence, Investing & TSP, Military Retirement | 18 Comments

From The Mail Buoy: Hawaii Investment Rental Properties


 

A reader writes:

Hello Doug. I really enjoyed your interviews and what you have to say about how you got to where you are now. I am looking into financial independence as well. I had a late start, so I feel it’s going to take a while for me to get there, and it may not even be early retirement by then.

The reason I am contacting you is because I heard your interviews both on the Millionaires Unveiled and the Bigger Pockets Money podcast and I have a few questions and I would love to hear your answers to them.

In the Millionaires Unveiled podcast interview you stated that it’s not a good idea to buy investment real state in Hawaii. I would like to hear from you on why is that? Is there any circumstance where buying real state to rent would actually work here?

I am pretty convinced that buying and renting or flipping real estate would be the fastest way for me to get to financial independence. It does not necessarily have to be in Hawaii, although there’s a few properties for sale right now near me that are very tempting. I am not even close to being financially independent as I stated, but with the options that we have right now, and the economy being hit with COVID-19, I feel like this is the time to act on certain opportunities that we may not see in a while, and I want to make sure I don’t miss out this time.  Thank you!

 

My response:

Thanks for listening to those podcasts!  Mindy and Scott do great interviews and I’ve enjoyed the other Millionaires Unveiled episodes.

Let me take you through Hawaii real-estate investing logic and its conclusions.

 

“Why not invest in Hawaii real estate?”

Image of an investment rental real estate single-family home on Oahu. | The-Military-Guide.com

It looks pretty good now!

Investment real estate offers an entrepreneurial career without the stock market’s volatility. You have more control over your real-estate investments, although it’s more work to analyze and buy the properties than to buy a stock index fund. Some people invest only in real estate and others stay with the stock market, or you could diversify with a combination of the strengths of each.

Over many decades, the stock market’s long-term return (after inflation & taxes) has been about 7% per year.  (Although it’s very volatile from one year to the next, that’s the compounded annual average.) Those returns can come from a passively-managed total stock market index fund with very low expense ratios. (The popular examples are the Thrift Savings Plan, Vanguard’s mutual fund VTSAX, or the exchange-traded fund version VTI.) The funds offer about 99.97% of the market’s return for almost no personal effort at analysis or management.

Once you’ve started the process, you can use your numbers to calculate roughly how long it’ll take you to reach financial independence.  All you have to do is save and invest as much as you can, and you’ll even automate that process. When you’re doing it consistently in autopilot, it’s actually pretty boring.

Image of dirt and debris under refrigerator from tenant not cleaning under it. | The-Military-Guide.com

“Uh, sure, we cleaned under the fridge…”

If you’re investing in real estate for a lower return, then you’re working way too hard for less money. You might have more control over the real estate, but it’s more work than the stock market– and real estate work can happen at inconvenient times. I’m not referring to the mythical 2 AM phone calls about plugged toilets but rather broken appliances or storm damage or tenants who simply move out at the end of their lease and leave some messes.

When you search for investment properties with the BiggerPockets thumbrules of 1% and 50%, it implies that you’re earning 12%/year in gross rents and spending half of it on operating costs.  Just investing with those two thumbrules results in an after-inflation after-tax long-term capitalization rate (your rate of return) of about 6%/year.  Yes, there’s appreciation too, but the long-term average appreciation of real estate is only about the rate of inflation.

Rental cash flow (net rental income) and the stock market are the only assets which routinely (over the long term) grow faster than inflation.

You very rarely see a Hawaii property with monthly rents of 1% of the property value.  You almost never see it on Oahu, although it’s possible to bottom-fish through the foreclosures and abused/neglected properties. When you make an offer on those properties, you’re competing with professional real estate investors who’ve spent years building up their teams and networks to search for them and negotiate a good price for them.

When you receive a military housing allowance, there’s even more temptation to invest in real estate. You’re earning tax-free money to buy a home instead of renting or living on base, so why not leverage it with a 0% down VA loan that even includes the closing costs? Psychologically you’d hesitate to use excessive leverage with the savings from your own paycheck, but for most military families the housing allowance is the biggest income stream they’ve ever experienced. A housing allowance doesn’t seem as hard-earned as real pay, and you could invest it instead of collecting rent receipts! Taken to extremes, you could buy a home at every duty station around the country— and when you left the service you’d have a very diversified portfolio of investment rental properties!!

That starts the urban legends of real estate profits: leveraging your equity with a mortgage and hoping that nothing bad happens while the property appreciates at least as fast than inflation. Over the very long term (30 years) that probably happens. Over the shorter term (10 years) it’s affected by local conditions. Over the very short term (a military tour of 2-3 years) it’s gambling.

 

Very few bargains on Oahu

My spouse and I have lived on Oahu for over 30 years.  There may be coronavirus real-estate bargains here if a landlord or homeowner loses their income and can’t pay their mortgage. The island’s collapse of the visitor industry has created double-digit unemployment, and people are struggling even more to pay their rent. However those bargains can be found all over America, and there will be better deals on the Mainland.

There might not be any appreciation in Oahu real estate for the next five years because of new construction.

During the Great Recession, the number of Oahu’s real estate sales dropped by 25%. However single-family homes & condos only lost about 10% of their value and quickly recovered.  Since then, the construction industry has been very slow to rebuild, and our current values have been forced over the last decade up by a lack of new homes.  That’s starting to change with Ho’opili, Koa Ridge, and the light rail’s Kakaako corridor– which should add at least another 5000 homes to the Oahu market in the next few years.  In addition, COVID-19 self-isolation is accelerating the growth of remote work and could reduce rush-hour traffic. That could even reduce property values.

From 1990-2000, Oahu real estate lost 30% of its value.  Japan’s 1980s real estate bubble drove real estate to ridiculously high starting values just before the 1990 Gulf War. The decade-long drop was exacerbated by the U.S. military’s drawdown (and base closures) of 1993-2000.  Coronavirus will not change Hawaii real estate value that much for that long.

You might occasionally win with appreciation, perhaps by owning a cheap property that suddenly turns out to be a block away from the new light rail station.  However you’re competing on those unicorns with full-time professionals who have better research tools, better networks, and more access to loans than us.

 

Better places to buy

Investing in real estate is best done with a team, or else it’s simply a second job where your time & efforts do not scale.  (Especially if you already have a different full-time career.)  You’d want to form your team of a property manager, a realtor, a contractor, and eventually a lawyer & accountant.  The Pro memberships on BiggerPockets are an example of people networking across the nation.  When you can form a good team then you can work with them anywhere.  It doesn’t matter whether they’re in Honolulu, in Hilo, or… in Houston.  You have the entire Internet to research America’s best investment real estate by ZIP codes, and you can build a team of professionals to help you manage those properties even when you’re thousands of miles away.

It’s a lot easier to find Mainland properties that return a capitalization rate of at least 6%/year.  (It’s possible to find them returning >10%.) If you have an experienced team of real estate professionals then you might even outperform the stock market.

 

Two conclusions.

The first conclusion is that it’s better (in the long term) to form a real estate team.  It seems hard to form that team (let alone at a distance), which is why people try to invest by themselves in their own neighborhoods.  Once you find the team, though, you’re well on your way to finding good properties across a much bigger area.  It’s also easier to grow that business.

The second conclusion is that your team will find better investment real estate on the Mainland.  Land and construction are cheaper than Hawaii, and if the rents are a little higher in a popular area then the math quickly jumps up into bigger returns.

 

What works for investing in Oahu real estate

There are professionals making good money from Oahu real estate.  I’ve met some of them and talked with a few of them.  They tend to do the following:

  • Commercial real estate, which is a specialized career built through experience.
  • Foreclosures, which have significant individual risks and take a lot of patience over months of effort.

    Image of Hawaii investment rental property with gutted kitchen and diningroom rehab in progress. | The-Military-Guide.com

    Kitchen rehab after 39 years.

  • “Gut and rebuild” rehabs, frequently on neglected or toxic properties.  You’ll need contractor skills in this area, along with nerves of steel to efficiently borrow money and execute quickly.
  • Neglected multifamily.  This is a specialized area where you buy from a landlord who’s mismanaging the property, or you fix a backlog of repairs/maintenance, or you squeeze out new efficiencies by billing separately for utilities.  Again it takes time & experience.

If you decide to pursue any of these areas then I can put you in touch with local military families to learn more.  If they don’t invest in that niche then they’ll know who does.  They’ve also attended a lot of real estate investor meetups and can help you find the right gatherings.

There are a couple options you can do on your own in Hawaii… but again they’re specialized skills and might not work for military families.

Image of Scott Trench's "Set For Life" book from BiggerPockets | The-Military-Guide.com

Click the image for more info.

Live-in flips.  You buy a crappy place and live in it while you do a gigantic rehab.  Mindy & Carl Jensen accelerated their FI this way in Colorado.  It can be a stressful lifestyle if you’re in the middle of a huge plumbing or electrical overhaul.  (On the other hand, your whole family could learn to lay flooring along with other valuable contractor skills.)  You’d want to live in the property for at least two years (to defer the capital-gains taxes on the sale), and then you end up moving every 3-4 years when you search for the next property.
Multifamily as your primary residence.  You buy a duplex (or bigger), live in one of the units, and have the tenants pay your mortgage.  For higher returns you can move into each of your units for a few months (as tenants move out) and rehab them to eventually upgrade the entire property (and charge higher rent).  There are also standard ways to bill each tenant for their individual utilities, even if there’s only one set of meters for the entire property.
House hacking.  (See Scott Trench’s “Set For Life” book.)  You buy a single-family home (perhaps with an accessory dwelling unit on the property) and rent out bedrooms (and the ADU) to multiple tenants. It’s shared living, and there may be more drama.  This can be problematic if you have kids/pets.

Personally, I prefer stock index funds.  (We also do live-in home improvement.)  Our biggest driver of our financial independence has been a high savings rate with an aggressive stock-market asset allocation. It’s very volatile, and I don’t have as much control over the stock market as I might have with a rental property. However it’s a lot less effort and I can absolutely reach financial independence with a combination of a high savings rate and regular investments in passively-managed stock indexes with cheap expense ratios.

 

Do your research:

Read about and plan your real estate investments at BiggerPockets.

Learn more about investing from the Bogleheads Wiki, or JL Collins’ book “The Simple Path To Wealth”, or his “Stock Series” of blog posts.

 

 

 

 

 

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Related articles:
From The Mail Buoy: Staying For 20 And Hacking The High Cost Of Living in Hawaii
Don’t Buy A Home On Active Duty
Don’t Buy A Home When You Leave Active Duty
Go Ahead: Buy A Home When You Leave Active Duty (Rebuttal from a smart military vet.)
What You Didn’t Know About Appreciation in Real Estate (I contributed to Rich’s post with more personal Oahu data.)
The 1980s-2000s: How I Wish I’d Invested Back Then
From The Mail Buoy: Staying For 20 And Hacking The High Cost Of Living in Hawaii  (The end of this post details a house hack on Kauai.)
Yes, the mail buoy is a Navy thing. Don’t get fooled!

Posted in Money Management & Personal Finance, Mortgage & Real Estate | 2 Comments

Fear And Despair In The Time Of Bear Markets


Let’s discuss your plan for getting through a bear market and reaching financial independence. If you don’t have a plan, then by the end of this post you’ll know how to craft one. You’ll feel good about taking action and you’ll sleep better at night.

You’ll cope with these situations every 5-10 years during all phases of your very long life. We’ll review how to assess bear markets and recessions when you’re approaching financial independence. We’ll cover what happens if you reached FI last week and quit your paid employment just before the market tanked. (Been there. Done that.) We’ll explain how to handle the economy when you’re FI at a young age and still have decades of life expectancy.

Image of Bloomberg chart of the S&P500 on 31 March 2020 showing a "death cross" technical analysis event warning of a possible selloff. | The-Military-Guide.com

Is it safe yet?

I can’t change your emotions but I can help you change your reactions and your behavior. My family is in this for the rest of our FI lives, and we no longer twitch every time a short-term event causes uncertainty and volatility. I’ll show you how to build that long-term perspective too.

Every financial crisis is filled with fear, uncertainty, despair, panic, and paranoia. And I’m not even talking about the stock markets yet!

[By the way, this post is evergreen. There’s a persistent rumor that search engines will punish sites for using keywords like “coronavirus”, “COVID-19”, or “SARS-CoV-2.” We experienced personal-finance bloggers don’t fret about the SEO– we use the keywords that our audience wants to see.

I wrote this blog post in late March 2020, during Hawaii’s 14 days of self-isolation for residents returning from travel. I feel fine and I hope that continues for another five or six decades.]

You’ll find more apocalyptic keywords all over the Internet, and I’m not going to obsess over them. Instead let’s talk about the psychology of behavioral finance. We’ll learn practical ways to cope with our emotions and our concerns. I’ll share the skills that we’ve acquired through experience… we certainly didn’t gain them through brilliance.

We’re going to switch our perspective to optimism.

“Optimism”? Seriously?!?

Yep. I’m 59 years old, and I’m hitting the “older male” demographic for a susceptible immune system. I’ve had bronchitis and pneumonia several times and my pulmonary function tests claim I’m down to a 70% capacity. During my military career I lived with chronic fatigue and acute stress for decades, and I’ve wreaked havoc on my body’s defenses. Looking back on my life, I’m perpetually amazed that I’ve survived to reach financial independence.

And yet I’m still optimistic– especially when I read blog posts written by my fellow Baby Boomers.

Image of Doug Nordman surfing at White Plains Beach Oahu, giving a shaka sign from the water. | The-Military-Guide.com

“What, me worry?”

As submariners learn very early in their careers, when you’re operating underwater then the casualties tend to have binary results. You’ll either take all the emergency actions and fix the problem, or… you won’t get the boat back to the surface and the rest won’t matter. That “escape” suit? Don’t count on it. Rely on your training and your teamwork. Practice until it becomes a reflex. Build your optimism on your skills and your shipmates.

It sounds a lot like every service’s military training, doesn’t it?

This binary result is the same way to endure the financial markets during global catastrophes.

The markets will either recover and go on to new growth, or… the catastrophe destroys the economy and life as we know it. The only question is how long the bear market persists, because the markets can remain irrational for far longer than we’re solvent.

Apocalypses are way beyond my locus of control. The only thing I can do during bear markets is to take care of my health and my finances. That helps develop the right attitude.

Focus on the things that you can control. Address your feelings, take the appropriate actions, and fix the root cause of the problems with your investments and your emotions. You’ll get plenty of practice as you save and invest for financial independence. Your reactions will improve, and you’ll be more optimistic too.

Yet another bear market.

My first thought on seeing the market’s steep drop was “Well, here we go again.” My spouse and I have invested for over 40 years, and we’ve seen this volatility before.

Graph of typical bull and bear market volatility with emotional reactions. | The-Military-Guide.com

Credit: Jonathan Ping of MyMoneyBlog

The consistent result among all of these bear markets: they’ve all recovered.

Remember: if the markets don’t recover then it’s because the global apocalypse has rendered the markets irrelevant.

Every time the bear market starts, it’s because investors are surprised by an unexpected event that’s grown out of control. If it was an expected event, then a bunch of us would have seen it coming and prepared for it. If we could control surprises then we would have handled it before it took over the markets.

One of the consistencies among bear markets is that we immediately insist: “It’s different this time!” That pessimism is pervasive: whatever we did during yesterday’s bear markets could never help with this amazingly new snowflake situation, and we’re all doomed.

Of course this time it’s different. If it was the same as last time then we would’ve seen it coming and prevented it.

The causes of a bear market are always different. Humans have short-term memories and we don’t know enough history to react rationally to the next surprise. Eventually, we’ll get smarter enough experience to handle the next surprise and we’ll notice the common factors.

Is it really different this time? Here’s a common factor: most bear markets last for 2-3 years. Even when a recession feels like forever, my personal experience is that the markets recover. They had to– or I wouldn’t write this post. Bear markets recover relatively slowly and they’re fraught with worry, but they’ve recovered.

Control what you can.

When you start investing, the Internet presents you with a bewildering array of options.  The financial industry claims that you can’t possibly manage your money on your own, and you need help. You need “free” information from the media (including us bloggers) to stay informed. You have to use “free” apps to help you execute your purchases, and you must seek help to grow your wealth. You’re even told that you can only handle the stress when you have a team to hold your hand and guide you through these complicated systems.

Image from Carl Richards' Behavior Gap drawings of stock market short-term volatility and long-term market gains. | The-Military-Guide.com

Carl Richards’ volatility perspective.

Ironically the talking heads and the researchers and the gurus are right about one aspect of investing: you can’t control the market’s daily volatility, even when you (think you) understand what’s happening.

As an investor, you only get to control three things: your asset allocation, the expenses you pay for it, and the amount you invest.

For the duration of the last bull market, we’ve seen plenty of bold talk about buying during the next bear market or economic recession:
“Stocks are on sale, yay!”
“Buy the dip!”
“Put that dry powder to work!!”

After 40 years, I can affirm that it’s easy to be bold during a bull market.

How bold do you feel in the second month of a bear market? How will we know exactly when to place those buy orders? What about the second year of a bear market? Forget about when you should go all-in with the market– when will this all end?!?

Now’s the time to start thinking about your emotions of a bear market’s behavioral financial psychology— and how well you’ll sleep at night.

How to handle your bear markets:

  • Have a plan.
  • Choose your asset allocation.
  • Put it in autopilot.
  • Find your support network. Turn off the financial media, don’t obsess over your account statements, and go live your life.
Image of a stack of colorful index cards for crafting your investment goals and plans. | The-Military-Guide.com

Keep it simple– try to fit your plan on just one card.

Your plan:
Your first step at every life transition is figuring out your short-term goals and long-term goals. (This applies during bull markets as well as bear markets.) Early in your career, you’re planning to pay off consumer debts (short-term goal) while claiming the match in your TSP and 401(k). You’ll boost your earnings and move through jobs (and unemployment). You’ll invest for retirement (long term) and financial independence (for your lifestyle). Maybe someday you’ll buy a house (long-term) or not (short-term).  What about raising a money-savvy familyCaring for aging parents?  Enjoying global perpetual travel?  Talk it out and write it down.

The best plan for your goals is written on an index card.

Keep it simple, especially when you’re new to investing. You want to explain your choices to your significant other, and maybe even to a six-year-old.

You can get really formal with an Investment Policy Statement if that makes you feel better, or be casually snarky with your plan. Either way you have to write it down and make it accessible for that moment when you want to panic and sell everything.

During bear markets and other stressful times, you’ll review your goals and your plans. You’ll consider why you’ve chosen your priorities and your assets, and you’ll analyze how your emotions are affecting your cognition. Maybe you’ll even ask a financial advisor (or a trusted friend) to talk you down off the (metaphorical) ledge.

Your asset allocation:
This is the tough part. All of the logic and math of an asset allocation can be hijacked by your emotions– not just fear but also greed. I’ve experienced this as a steely-eyed killer of the deep, and I’ve seen it in thousands of other military families. It’s reportedly even happened in Warren Buffett’s family.

Image of 10-part asset allocation plan as a three-dimensional pie chart. | The-Military-Guide.com

Nope, too complicated. Keep it simple.

You can read the details of asset allocation at the Bogleheads Wiki.

You’re going to decide how aggressively you want to invest in stocks and real estate, and you’re going to decide how much volatility risk you’re willing to tolerate.

Intellectually you know that you’ll invest in stocks for a goal that’s at least 10 years away. You’ll use bonds for goals that are 5-10 years off. Short-term goals are in CDs and money markets. If you’re investing in real estate then you’ll build long-term cash flow instead of counting on short-term appreciation.

Image of Leonard Nimoy as Star Trek character Mr. Spock to illustrate his skepticism that emotions can derail logic. | The-Military-Guide.com

Emotions are highly illogical… and more powerful.

That’s math and logic. However, volatility will hit your emotions hard.

The problem is that the risk-tolerance quizzes don’t create the same feelings as a bear market. Everyone looks at the numbers and rationally concludes “Sure, I can handle a 50% paper loss for a year or two.” Emotionally, however, the actual experience feels completely different from the quizzes. Try to reframe the analysis for your personal timeline.

During the next bear market, can you stand to see your accounts shrink by a year of gains? Two years? Will you lose a decade of progress or end up even worse off? How long can you watch those paper losses pile up? What if you’re laid off when the market tanks? Will you lay awake night wondering “When will this end?” or even worse “OMG what have I done?!?”

No worries. Bear markets help you recalibrate your asset-allocation choices and your risk tolerance.

Keep it simple. You don’t need to boost your returns with options spreads or inverse-leverage funds. You can ignore exotic assets like cryptocurrencies, precious metals, or property-tax liens. If you’re investing in real estate then have an emergency-repair fund for each property. If you leverage your rental’s equity with a mortgage then keep enough cash to handle a vacancy of at least two months.

Diversify your asset allocation using passively-managed index funds with low expense ratios. (Lower than 0.25%/year. 0.10% is better. 0.04% is great.) If you’re going to pick individual stocks or bonds (or investment rental properties in the same ZIP code) then limit those assets to 10% of your overall asset allocation. 10% is big enough to boost your returns if you’re brilliant, and small enough to limit the damage if you’re… not.

Don’t “go all in” on a cheap asset, let alone a cheap stock. During 2008-09 on the Early-Retirement.org forum we watched an investor buy more stock in Bank of America every month. He understood the industry and the company, he did the math, and he loooooved the stock’s dividend. He loaded up every time the shares “went on sale.” He wasn’t greedy but he thought it was a safe haven, and he definitely confirmed his bias by deciding to “believe in his analysis” and “have faith in the numbers.” He left no margins for error or surprises.

His tactics worked… until they didn’t. BoA abruptly revealed billions of dollars of poorly performing loans and cut their dividend to a penny. Over half of this poster’s investment income vaporized overnight, and his assets lost 75% of their value. He could have controlled his asset allocation, but the company’s operations (and its results) were all totally beyond his control.

If you read those last two paragraphs and thought “Eh, I know how to do better than that”, then experiment with the 10% part of your asset allocation. The more you read about it and work at it, then the higher your returns might rise. However it also might turn into a full-time side job, and you might be reluctant to turn your back on it for a military deployment with minimal bandwidth.

If you lay awake at night worrying about what you need to do with your investments when the markets open in the morning, then you’re working too hard. Keep it simple.

Put it in autopilot!
This is why you choose a simple asset allocation, and limit your “brilliant investor” ideas to 10% of your asset allocation.

Image of a personal-finance blogger tweeting the question on what FIRE people would do during a market downturn. | The-Military-Guide.com

Click on the tweet to read our responses.

When you’re pursuing financial independence, bear markets are where your effort and your automation really pay off.

Set up payroll deductions or checking-account transfers to buy your asset allocation every pay period or every month. You don’t want to deal with decision fatigue and you certainly don’t want your emotions to hijack your plan.

Check your asset allocation percentages every few months, but don’t obsess over them. If you plan to split your asset allocation at 70% stocks and 30% bonds then let it drift a few percentage points each way. If it gets down to 60/40 then you buy more stock funds for a few months to bring it back to 70/30. (This is when stock index funds are on sale.) If it rises to 80/20 then you might not want to buy expensive stocks anyway, and you’ll put more of your savings into bonds or CDs.

If you have a lump sum to invest then you could buy your asset allocation in one transaction: get it over with and move on. If this feels stressful then invest that lump sum over 6-12 months.

The history of "This is the top" image of the DOW Jones index 1900-2016 annotated with many instances of the phrase "This is the top." | The-Military-Guide.com

“No, really, this time is different!”

Find a support network.
Turn off the financial TV and the daily market reports. You can check your account statements for errors and maybe think about rebalancing, but don’t obsess about the recent losses.

Go live your life. Focus on family, friends, and career… in about that order. Go outside. Try to exercise, eat better, and get some sleep. It’s not easy to do these things during stressful times, but it helps.

Like any other stressful time, during a bear market you’re going to talk with family & friends. Find people who have at least as much investing knowledge and risk tolerance as you. Read Internet forums and Facebook groups to find posters in similar situations, and ask questions.

If you’re still feeling stressed about your options then consider financial advice.

Maybe you’d want to consult a fee-only CFP from NAPFA, the Garrett Network, or XY Planning Network. They charge by the hour (or project) without commissions or upsells. You might also decide that you’d prefer a financial coach instead of a CFP. Coaches can do everything that a CFP does except recommend specific investment funds or stocks.

How will a bear market affect your FI plans?

What stage of your financial independence journey are you in?

If you’re just starting your career and your path to FI, then follow the four steps above. If you’re paying down debt then you should still invest for your employer match in your 401(k) or your Thrift Savings Plan. Adapt your investment decisions to the interest rate on your loans. If you’re paying less than 4% interest then maybe you’re comfortable at making the minimum debt payments and investing more in your asset allocation of your 401(k) or your IRA. If your debt has a higher interest rate then accelerate its payoff and sleep better at night.

If you’re carrying a mortgage or student loans then you might even want to investigate refinancing to a lower interest rate. I’d happily restart our 30-year fixed-rate mortgage if we could drop the rate from 3.50% to less than 3%.

If you’re approaching FI and planning to retire soon, then make sure you hit the tripwire of the 4% Safe Withdrawal Rate before you quit your employment. Learn about sequence-of-returns risk and consider keeping two years of your retirement expenses in cash during the first decade of financial independence.

If you’ve already reached FI (the 4% SWR or cash flow from rental properties) and quit your job, then you should be fine! The 4% SWR will survive bear markets even if your annual spending rises to 6%-7% of your shrinking investments. You’re not a spending robot. You’ll review your expenses and make smart choices. If the bear market extends longer than two years then you’ll investigate variable withdrawal schemes and consider moving to lower-cost areas. The success rate of the 4% SWR gives you plenty of time to adjust your tactics, and dealing with a bear market while you’re FI is still a far more enjoyable life than the best days in the workplace.

What we’re doing in our family:

At Hale Nords, we’re neither buying nor selling. We’re not even rebalancing.

We’re focused on long-term next-generation goals and we’re living our lives.

Short answer: we’re staying with our asset allocation.

Image of spreadsheet bar chart of Nordman family net worth from 1991-2020 with 1999 indexed to 100. | The-Military-Guide.com

March 2020 update: still more than enough.

Long-term answer: after 18 years of retirement, our investments will survive bear markets. Our emotions are still challenging, but the 4% SWR follows its math.

My spouse and I reached FI for the first time in late 1999 (in retrospect), along with everyone else who invested in a high-equity portfolio during the Internet bull market. We didn’t know about the 4% Safe Withdrawal Rate back then and my military billet did not suck, so I stayed on active duty.

After 9/11 when the stock markets re-opened, we ran our numbers again. This time we knew about the 4% SWR, and despite the market’s epic meltdown we were about a nickel over the tripwire.

I retired from active duty in June 2002, just as the Internet recession was headed for the bottom.  The next few months were not fun, and there were several intense spouse discussions about asset allocation, but our Plan B was getting a job for a year or two. (We never needed to do that.) At retirement we had set aside two years’ expenses for sequence-of-returns risk, and we kept spending from that cash. The rest of our asset allocation was in equity mutual funds, although we began moving toward equity ETFs with cheaper expense ratios.

2008-09 was no fun, either, but we stuck to our two-year cash stash plan and our asset allocation. We did some tax-loss harvesting but we stayed invested.

After 2012 we drew down the cash stash. We’d survived the decade of vulnerability to sequence-of-returns risk and our spending had risen more slowly than inflation. Today our annual spending is around 3.5%, comfortably within the 4% SWR and invulnerable to historical returns. We’re confident that we have more than enough assets for the rest of our lives.

In 2017, in a “Well, duh” epiphany, I stopped tracking the markets. I shut off my daily e-mail summaries and my alerts and retrained myself to stop looking at our investments every week. It took a while, but I no longer obsess about the daily numbers. I check Personal Capital when I’m working on income-tax returns or totaling an expense category. (Or researching a blog post.) I’m in our Fidelity accounts when I’m transferring dividends to our checking account. Otherwise I’m blissfully ignorant.

Personal Capital also showed that our equity index ETF shares (purchased in 2003-04) had much higher expense ratios than today’s index ETFs. We’re getting rid of the last of those higher-expense ETFs and moving to Vanguard’s total stock market index fund (ticker VTI) in a tax-efficient manner. We’ve donated many of those shares to charity for the income-tax deduction.

We reached financial independence on a high savings rate, and we’ve endured bear markets before. Today we have reliable income from my military pension (and in a decade, Social Security) and a little cash flow from a rental property. Because of our volatility experience and those inflation-adjusted annuities, we have an extraordinarily aggressive asset allocation: it’s >95% equities with the rest in cash.

Image of Nordman Personal Capital asset allocation showing 95% equities. | The-Military-Guide.com

Still on track.

Instead of looking at the stock markets we’re focused on estate planning and philanthropy, and we’ll work harder on giving it away.

There’s no reason to make rapid moves. As I wrote this post, we were 98% stocks and 2% cash.
That 98% includes:
52% VTI.
24% Berkshire Hathaway “B” shares, for our heirs and charities.
12% in the dividend ETF (DVY), slowly moving to VTI.
10% angel investments, winding them down.

As this bear market began, my old reflexes kicked in. I could sell put options on our ETF shares. I could put our unused cash to work in more shares of a total stock market index fund. We could do more aggressive marketing on our next book and pursue freelance writing with public speaking. I’ve done those things before, they work, and I can do them again.

But we don’t need the extra income or assets. Life is already awesome.

Our worst drop in this bear market (so far) is 18%. In 2009 our net worth dropped 56% from peak to trough and then recovered, so in 2020 we’re not worried.

We’re living our long-term goals now.

Image of Doug Nordman napping with his eight-week-old baby granddaughter Arya in his lap. | The-Military-Guide.com

“After the midwatch.”

Our daughter and son-in-law recently gave birth to our first grandchild. We’ve gifted Arya the cash to start her 529 account, and her parents are really happy to buy the index funds at a 30% discount.

In the “living our lives” goal, we visited them for a month of diaper duty. There was grandparent sleep deprivation (I took the midwatches), but we gave the parents a much-needed break. I enjoy taking naps with a baby in my lap.

Arya’s parents have a high savings rate for their own financial independence, and they’re well on their way. Poopie diapers are a great metaphor for a bear market, and during our visit, our granddaughter offered many opportunities for that financial discussion. My daughter Carol and I also finished editing our book about raising money-savvy families, and now we’re starting the marketing with social media and podcasts.

That’s our legacy for everyone’s next generation. Arya seems pretty satisfied.

Image of Doug Nordman's eight-week-old baby granddaughter Arya smiling in her bouncer chair. | The-Military-Guide.com

“I like bear markets!”

Your call to action:

Make a plan.

Choose your asset allocation.

Put it in autopilot.

Find your support network.

[earnist ref=”the-military-guide-to-financial-independence” id=”70177″]

Related articles:
How Should I Invest During Retirement?
Yet Another Decade In Review Post
The 1980s-2000s: How I Wish I’d Invested Back Then
Our Retirement – The Spending Smile Of Financial Independence
“Hey, Nords: How’s Your Net Worth?!?”
REVEALED: Our Asset Allocation During Financial Independence (published in 2015)
How Do You Survive A Stock Market Crash?
Lifestyles in Financial Independence: Your Mortality

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